Herald-Tribune: Debaten sobre posible comienzo de una recesión

Whether incomes are dipping is at core of recession debate

Published: Sunday, November 11, 2007 at 3:01 a.m.

Last Modified: Sunday, November 11, 2007 at 4:18 a.m.

Herald-Tribune.com

Hank Fishkind's Orlando-based economic research firm predicted in October 2006 that personal incomes in Charlotte, Sarasota and Manatee counties would drop 17 percent in 2007 and would not climb back to 2006 levels until well past 2010.

When called by the Herald-Tribune, one of Fishkind's associates said the numbers, which had been available on the firm's Web site for a year, were wrong and fresh statistics would be out shortly.

Despite the fact that the economy has taken a turn for the worse, Fishkind & Associates came back with numbers that show personal income rising 2.5 percent to $32.6 billion in 2007, and continuing to rise at an accelerated pace through the end of the decade.

Fishkind defended the new figures last week, saying that tourism and other sectors of the economy are making up for the declines in anything related to home building.

"We still have positive job growth," Fishkind said.

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Herald-Tribune: La palabra que empieza con "R"

The "R" word

Published: Sunday, November 11, 2007 at 3:04 a.m.

Last Modified: Sunday, November 11, 2007 at 7:59 a.m.

Herald-Tribune.com

The "R" word is coming up more in conversations across Southwest Florida.

If you are a beach bistro selling margaritas to tourists, you might not notice. But on the mainland, it feels and looks like a recession.

The end of the real estate boom has sent ripples through the economy. Cash register receipts are slumping. Many workers -- either laid off or marginalized by cutbacks in hours -- are leaving town or taking lower-paying jobs. Food banks are dishing out free food as fast as they can find it.

Consider these factors:

Taxable sales in the region have declined this year, the first time that has happened since 9/11 and the most serious decline in 20 years. In July, sales were down 10 percent.

Bank deposits dropped 8.5 percent in the region during the year ended June 30.

Housing permits in the region are down more than 70 percent from 2005's peak. Many builders have laid off three-quarters of their work force as a like amount of business has vanished.

Unemployment in the region has surpassed the state average for the first time that anyone can remember, rising to nearly 6 percent in Charlotte County. Builders estimate that 70 percent of their work force is undocumented workers, so the unemployment figures likely underestimate the true joblessness.

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