Palabras de quien predijo el final de la burbuja hipotecaria

Posted on Sun, Aug. 28, 2011 Words of wisdom from someone who predicted end of housing boom By TOLUSE OLORUNNIPA tolorunnipa@MiamiHerald.com

Seven years ago, while South Florida developers were still staging high-flying condo parties and speculators lined up to put down deposits on new units, housing analyst Jack McCabe saw dangerous signs and began to warn that a downturn was imminent.


As one of the few voices that predicted a housing bust during the fast-money days of the housing boom, McCabe’s insights became more and more valuable when his predictions began to play out. His profile has grown as the housing market has plunged into recession and uncertainty, as analysts and reporters seek insight about where the market is headed next.

As president and CEO of McCabe Research & Consulting in Deerfield Beach, McCabe performs market analysis and consulting for major players in the national and local housing markets, but he is more well-known to consumers through his constant appearances in the media. Often pitted as a contrast to optimistic real estate agents, McCabe has been quoted more than 2,000 times in media outlets including The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Forbes, The Times of London and The Shanghai Daily.

McCabe has been criticized for his often negative market forecasts (he coined terms like “ghost towers in the sky”), but he believes he’s advocating for everyday consumers trying to make tough decisions in a sometimes-cryptic housing industry.

“I’ve received enough letters and emails and phone calls from people who said, ‘Jack, I listened to you, and thank God I did,’” he said. “People took good loans, instead of the toxic mortgages.”

Q: When did you know that the housing bubble was going to burst?

A: April 2004.

Q: What did you do when you realized the market was in bubble territory?

A: Initially I warned my clients. I also began including my predictions of the impending doom in speaking engagements, quotes in print articles, and in television interviews.

Q: Why do you think so many people missed the warning signs?

A: Greed blinds people from the truth. No one with a vested interest in real estate wanted to see the gravy train end. Early in the decline, some developers and Realtors publicly blamed my analysis and predictions for causing the housing bust in South Florida.

Q: Has South Florida’s housing market hit the bottom yet? If not, when do you predict it will?

A: The housing markets will not bottom out until foreclosures and short sales are less than 10 percent of total sales and inventory, and the unemployment rate is less than 6 percent. The earliest that will happen is the first quarter of 2013.

Q: In 2015, are housing prices in South Florida rising, falling, or flat?

A: Prices are increasing by 3 percent to 5 percent in 2015, until hyper-inflation from the massive US debt sets in. Then a quick rise before prices plummet as interest rates skyrocket. I’m predicting that will happen sometime between 2015 and 2017.

Q: Do you rate South Florida a “rent” or a “buy?”

A: Without a doubt in the last five years it has definitely been better to rent than buy in South Florida. Anyone that has bought a home since 2004 is in a loss position if they had to sell today. Now there are some properties that make sense to buy. It depends on the house or condo project, the neighborhood, and the buyer’s personal circumstances and motivations.

Q: What was your first job? How much did you make?

A: I started out keeping score in the local bowling alley for evening adult leagues when I was 9 years old. I got a quarter a bowler and an extra quarter if they had a 111 score in the seventh frame. Then, I had a paper route when I was 11 and made $35 a week. My first job with taxes withdrawn was as a busboy in a restaurant at 15 for which I made $3.25 an hour.

Q: What is the worst thing employees say about you behind your back?

Good question. My guess is that I expect them to be as dedicated and work as hard as I do. And … I’m a control freak.

Q: What was the best job you ever had?

A: My current one, as CEO of McCabe Research & Consulting. I am very passionate and truly enjoy what I do.

Q: What was the worst?

A: I won’t name the company, but as a division sales manager for a publicly traded homebuilder. Every decision was made at the corporate headquarters and no autonomy was given to managers in the field.

Q: Have you ever been fired – if so, why?

A: Once when a company downsized by terminating half of the employees; once for expressing my disagreement on company strategy with my immediate supervisor.

Q: What’s the first thing you read in the morning?

A: I start with business and real estate articles on the Herald’s website. Then on to websites of The Sun Sentinel, Palm Beach Post, Scripps Treasure Coast, Naples Daily News, Fort Myers News-Press, Sarasota Herald Tribune, Tampa Tribune, Orlando Sentinel, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Chicago Tribune, L.A. Times, USA Today and Canada’s National Post. After that I read recently published real estate trade articles and some international business news websites.

Q: How would you write your own biography in seven words?

A: Prescient; articulate; loved people more than money.

Q: What’s the last book you read?

A: A Course Called Ireland, by Tom Coyne.

Q: You can put your face on the cover any publication. What’s your pick?

A: Golf Digest – with the caption, “Senior Rookie of the Year.”

Q: What class should every college student be required to take?

A: Personal Finance.

Q: What about every B-school grad?

A: Business Ethics.

Q: How much of your day is spent in meetings?

A: Very little thankfully. Most time is divided between teleconferences, research and writing.

Q: You can have a conference call with any three living people. Who do you choose?

A: If the call was today, I would pick Barack Obama, [U.S. Treasury Secretary] Tim Geithner, and [Federal Reserve Chairman] Ben Bernanke. Three brilliant men that are clueless as to how to end the housing depression and begin to repair the foundation of our economy.

Q: Complete this sentence: "South Florida really needs a ...."

A: Regional plan for controlled growth (before it becomes a concrete jungle similar to Houston), and a completely new set of elected officials that make decisions based on what’s good for the future of South Florida instead of what’s good for their wallet.

Q: Blackberry (or iPhone, etc.): Blessing or a curse?

A: Both. I can run my business from anywhere, including the golf course. That’s why it’s a blessing … and a curse.

Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/08/28/v-fullstory/2374681/words-of-wisdom-from-someone-who.html#ixzz1ZfbOnycY